THE INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND LAND USE ON
DISTRIBUTION OF EPHEMEROPTERA SPECIES (INSECTA)
THREATENED WITH EXTINCTION IN BRAZIL
Niche Modeling, Neotropical, Atlantic Forest, Conservation, Suitability
Climate change, primarily driven by deforestation, has significant impacts on
global biodiversity, affecting distribution and increasing species extinction. Strong
evidence suggests that changes in the abundance, distribution, and diversity of aquatic
insects are consistent with the widespread effects of land use and climate change.
Understanding these combined effects is essential for predicting future patterns in
species distribution and managing biodiversity conservation strategies. This study
aims to identify, in different scenarios, the potential geographic distribution of
endangered Ephemeroptera species in Brazil. The R 4.1.2 environment with the
ENMTML package (ANDRADE et al., 2020) was used, with the Bioclim, Domain, and
RandomForest algorithms for modeling, with 10 replicas for each species. The metrics
used were Area Under the Curve (AUC), True Skill Statistic (TSS), Jaccard, Sørensen,
and Fpb. The open-source software QGIS version 3.16.2 was used to produce the
maps. Occurrence points of six endangered Ephemeroptera species and a set of
environmental variables represented by seven bioclimatic variables plus two terrain
variables were used. The results corroborate that all species are vulnerable or at risk
of future extinction, with fragmented areas with little suitability for species survival.