Banca de DEFESA: NILSON REINALDO FERNANDES DOS SANTOS JUNIOR

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : NILSON REINALDO FERNANDES DOS SANTOS JUNIOR
DATE: 11/04/2023
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: Sala de reuniões DAEF
TITLE:

Climate change and land use on the potential suitability of the Brazil nut tree (Bertholletia excelsa Bonpl.)

KEY WORDS:

Conservation of biodiversity; Forest ecology; Species distribution modeling; Ecological niche; Future predictions

PAGES: 70
BIG AREA: Outra
AREA: Ciências Ambientais
SUMMARY:

Knowledge of the potential suitability for the distribution of the Brazil nut tree (Bertholletia excelsa Bonpl.) is essential for contributing to strategies aimed at its long-term preservation in nature, as the species is classified as vulnerable by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. Therefore, the objective of this study was to understand the synergistic effects of climate change and land cover on the suitability for the occurrence of the Brazil nut tree in both current (1970-2000) and future (2050) times. To predict potential suitability, species distribution modeling based on ecological niche was applied. Observational data was obtained from online platforms such as the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, Species Link, and Portal da Biodiversidade, as well as from scientific literature and forest census conducted in the Management Unit III of the Jamari National Forest, Rondônia, Brazil. Environmental variables were collected from WorldClim 2.1 (climate), Soilgrids (soil), and NASADEM (topography). A literature review was conducted to select the most ecologically relevant variables. Future projections (2050) were made using bioclimatic variables derived from the sixth version of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project General Circulation Models, MIROC6 and CanESM5, associated with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 2-4.5 and 5-8.5. Principal Component Analysis was used to reduce collinearity among environmental variables. Nine algorithms with different complexities were applied, and ensemble models were generated for current and future periods. Model evaluation was carried out using AUC, TSS, Jaccard, and Sorensen metrics. Post-processing involved control of extrapolation by the Mobility-Oriented Parity (MOP) and consideration of forest coverage in the final models. Currently, the estimated suitable area for the species covers 4,024,567 km² (57.8%) of the Amazon biome (Pan-Amazonia). Regarding future projections, there was an increase in suitable area for the species (0.56%) in the conservative scenario (MIROC6/SSP2-4.5), but with a shift from optimal to suboptimal, moderate, and low suitability levels. On the other hand, in the pessimistic scenario (CanESM5/SSP5-8.5), there was an estimated 68.80% reduction in suitability for the species. In general, the projections indicate a trend of negative impacts from the synergistic effects of climate change and land cover on the suitability for the occurrence of the Brazil nut tree until the year 2050

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Presidente - 1658780 - EMANUEL FERNANDO MAIA DE SOUZA
Interno - 2248433 - IZAIAS MEDICE FERNANDES
Externo ao Programa - 1807939 - JOSE DAS DORES DE SA ROCHA - UNIRExterna ao Programa - ***.359.608-** - LUCIA HELENA DE OLIVEIRA WADT - EMBRAPA
Externa à Instituição - ANA LUIZA ANDRADE