Banca de DEFESA: LUIZ ALVES DOS SANTOS NETO

Uma banca de DEFESA de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
DISCENTE : LUIZ ALVES DOS SANTOS NETO
DATA : 11/06/2021
HORA: 08:00
LOCAL: Google Meet
TÍTULO:

HYDROCLIMATOLOGICAL MODELING OF MAXIMUM MONTHLY LEVELS OF THE ACRE RIVER IN THE CITY OF RIO BRANCO/AC

PALAVRAS-CHAVES:

Hydrology. Climatology. Artificial Neural Networks. Amazonia. Flood.

PÁGINAS: 212
GRANDE ÁREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
ÁREA: Geociências
SUBÁREA: Meteorologia
ESPECIALIDADE: Climatologia
RESUMO:

Flooding is a type of natural disaster where the rise in the level of the river during the flood period comes into contact with society, causing damage. In the Amazon, flooding is one of the most frequent natural disasters in the region. The Acre River Basin (BHA) is the most important in the state of Acre. The economic exploitation in the basin causes changes in the landscape that are reflected in the water regime. These factors make BHA more susceptible to extreme hydrological events, with increasingly frequent flooding. In order to minimize the impacts caused by floods, this research aimed to characterize the BHA's hydroclimatological regime, an in-depth analysis of the two largest floods of the Acre River in the 21st century (2012 and 2015) and the development of 4 hydroclimatological models capable of to predict the maximum monthly level of the Acre River in the city of Rio Branco for the current month, for the following month and for 3 months in advance, with one Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model based and 3 different Artificial Neural Network algorithms (ANN) model based. For the hydroclimatological characterization, 49 years (1971 to 2019) of maximum monthly levels of the Acre River in Rio Branco and 39 years (1981 to 2019) of precipitation extracted from CHIRPS were used. In the development of the modeling, mean monthly sea surface temperature (SST) data from tropical areas of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, in addition to the Southwest Atlantic and average monthly atmospheric pressure in Darwin and Tahiti in the same period were used as input variables, 49 years. The result of the simulations of each model was compared with the data observed at the station and from this comparison the accuracy of each simulator was obtained by means of performance indexes. In the analysis of the hydroclimatological characterization of BHA, it was observed that the basin has an average annual rainfall that varies spatially from 1400 to 2000 mm, the lowest values being observed in areas to the south of the basin and the highest to the north. The monthly variability of rainfall in the BHA is well defined, with high volumes in the first months of the year (January to March) and low rainfall levels in the middle of the year (June to August). The maximum annual levels of the Acre River occur preferably between February and March. Relationships were found between the annual total precipitation in the basin and the maximum annual level of the Acre River in Rio Branco with the SST of the adjacent oceans, which affect in some aspects of the BHA water regime both on an inter-annual and inter-decadal scale. Regarding the two largest floods of the Acre River in the 21st century, one was caused by oceanic-climatic phenomena (2012) while the other was due to the performance of meteorological systems (2015). In the analysis of the models tested to simulate the maximum monthly level in a month-to-month continuous time series, all presented acceptable forecasts with satisfactory performance indexes in the three forecast horizons, with the model based on MLR being the best accuracy. However, when comparing only the maximum annual levels, the ANN-based models were more accurate in all the proposed forecast horizons, including the prognosis of the high levels of the Acre river observed in 2012 and 2015. Both techniques have advantages and disadvantages, but the performance results found here allow them to act operationally in environmental agencies as an indispensable tool for water management in disaster prevention months in advance and thus mitigate the frequent flooding of the Acre River with less loss and damage.

MEMBROS DA BANCA:
Presidente - 1348155 - VANDERLEI MANIESI
Externo à Instituição - FABRÍCIO DANIEL DOS SANTOS SILVA - UFAL
Externo à Instituição - JASMINE PRYSCILA LEITE DE ARAÚJO - UFPA
Externo à Instituição - CARLOS ALEXANDRE SANTOS QUERINO - UFAM
Externo à Instituição - ROBERTO ALAN FERREIRA ARAUJO - CEUP