Multivariate Analysis for Optimization of the Ecological Criterion for Distribution of ICMS Resources to Municipalities in Rondonia
ICMS Ecologicaç; AmazÔnia; Rondônia
The Ecological ICMS (Tax on Environmental Management) represents an important economic instrument for environmental policy in Brazil, using environmental criteria to distribute resources from the Municipal Participation Fund. In the state of Rondonia, located in the Western Amazon, this mechanism has maintained a structure based exclusively on the area criteria of conservation units since 1996, while other states have evolved to more comprehensive approaches. This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of the Ecological ICMS in Rondonia and propose methodological improvements for its distribution, considering multiple dimensions of municipal environmental management. This is an applied qualitative and quantitative study, using document analysis, a literature review, and multivariate statistical analysis. Data were collected through a literature review of 28 studies, using the Systematic Search Flow method, a comparative analysis of the legislation of 17 Brazilian states, and data from public databases. Spearman's correlation analysis was applied to diagnose the Rondonia model, and Principal Component Analysis was applied to develop constructs and develop a proposed multivariate distribution index, considering three dimensions: a) Conservation Units (UCs) and Permanent Preservation Areas (APPs); b) Water/Sewage; and c) Fires/Deforestation. The results revealed that the current criterion presents a stronger correlation with territorial area (0.714) than with deforestation indicators (0.10), excluding 18 municipalities without UCs. The proposed methodology for constructing a multivariate index demonstrated significant redistributive potential, reducing the concentration of resources (Guajara-Mirim and Porto Velho would decrease from 38.27% to 21.48%), reducing the resources transferred to municipalities with evident deforestation dynamics, and including municipalities with good performance in other environmental dimensions, excluded from the current model. This study aims to contribute to the improvement of environmental public policies through a proposal that can encourage and compensate better environmental results and ecosystem services.