Academic Dropout at the Federal University of Rondônia: Analysis of Determining Factors and Implications for Student Retention
academic dropout; student retention; educational public policies.
ABSTRACT
Academic dropout in Brazilian higher education reaches annual averages of 25%, compromising the efficiency of public spending and the social mission of universities. At the Federal University of Rondônia (UNIR), the Accumulated Dropout Rate increased from 34% (2015) to 62% (2023), evidencing the urgency of diagnoses that consider the specificities of the Amazon region. This thesis aims to investigate the factors influencing academic dropout at UNIR through institutional statistical analyses and student perception surveys. The specific objectives are: (i) to analyze the evolution of UNIR's academic dropout rates between 2020 and 2025, by course, campus, gender, and socioeconomic status; (ii) to identify statistical patterns related to student dropout; (iii) to identify the main difficulties faced during the academic trajectory; (iv) to analyze UNIR's results in comparison to theory and other realities. The methodology articulates quantitative and qualitative approaches, configured as exploratory, descriptive research and institutional case study. Secondary data will be extracted from UNIR's academic system and primary data collected through structured questionnaires applied to dropout students (probability sample, 95% confidence, 3% error). Analyses include descriptive statistics, association tests, Accumulated Dropout Rate calculations, multivariate modeling, and content analysis. The study is grounded in theoretical models by Tinto, Bean and Metzner, Cabrera, Casteñeda and Nora, and Coulon, as well as analysis of student retention public policies. Results are expected to reveal the interaction between socioeconomic, institutional, and individual factors in determining dropout, providing subsidies for public policies contextualized to Amazonian realities. The research contributes to regional development by strengthening the training of qualified professionals, essential to meet local demands and promote social transformation, while optimizing public investment in higher education in the Amazon.