ANTROPIC PRESSURE IN AMAZON CONSERVATION UNIT WITH PREDICTION OF SCENARIOS: THE CASE OF THE NATIONAL FOREST OF JAMARI/RO
Conservation Units. Socioenvironmental Analysis. Land use and land cover. Geographic Information System. Land Change Modeler.
This study involves the dynamics of human intervention of occupation in the Jamari National Forest (Flona), in view of the possibilities of detailed socio-environmental analysis with the impulsion by the availability of computational tools and satellite image databases. In this context, the objective is to analyze anthropic pressure in Flona, with trend modeling of the numbers of hotspots and the land use, and land cover classes from the year 2000, with the institution of the National System of Nature Conservation Units (BRASIL, 2000), to the year 2017, including scenario predictions for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050. To achieve the proposed objective, GIS techniques were applied, using computational models and algorithms for change detection (Land Use and Land Cover Change), with the INPE burns database and the MapBiomas land use and land cover database. The results show a high number of hotspots as an occupation component, mainly in its buffer zone, with its decrease coinciding with the emergence of environmental legislations, representing 2324 incidences (52.5%) in the first 6 years of analysis (2000 to 2005) and 2104 incidences (47.5%) in the following 12 years (2006 to 2017). Land use and land cover from the years 2000 to 2017 present revegetation in areas degraded by cassiterite mining activity in Jamari Flona (1,850.58 hectares). In this period, for the buffer zone, 18.62% of the Forest Class was replaced by Pasture (11.91%), Hydrograph (0.97%), Temporary Crops (0.06%) and Urban Infrastructure (0.04%), as well as the emergence of Soy as the new Land Use and Land Cover Class in 2017 in the buffer zone (7,791.82 hectares, 3.25%). The scenarios for future years in Flona show an intensification of anthropic pressure for the land use mode with trends in the replacement of Forest Class areas, mainly in its buffer zone, by areas of Pasture, Soybean and Temporary Crops Classes, as well as the stabilization of areas of Mining, Hydrography and Urban Infrastructure Classes.