CHALLENGES AND UNCERTAINTIES OF REDD+ PROJECTS IN THE MARKET VOLUNTARY
Climate change mitigation, Forests, Benefit-sharing, Traditional communities.
Forest loss is one of the main sources of carbon emissions and significantly contributes to climate change. Combating forest degradation and deforestation, along with promoting ecosystem restoration, could account for at least 30% of the mitigation needed to meet the Paris Agreement's goals—which aims to limit global warming to below 2°C. In Brazil, this challenge is even more critical: land-use changes, particularly deforestation, accounted for 46% of the country's gross emissions in 2023. In this context, REDD+ emerges as a promising strategy, offering financial incentives to reduce forest destruction and promote conservation. This thesis examines institutional responses to criticisms directed at REDD+ projects in the voluntary carbon market, focusing on Brazil. Allegations of methodological flaws, land tenure insecurity, benefit concentration, and low participation of local communities have called into question the credibility and integrity of these projects, especially those certified under the Verra standard. In reaction, methodological revisions have begun to restore the mechanism's legitimacy. The hypothesis is that such changes, while representing formal progress, are
insufficient to address the structural criticisms that undermine the socio-environmental effectiveness of these projects. The thesis objectives include: analyzing the current landscape of REDD+ projects in Brazil; identifying key criticisms from the market and civil society; and mapping the measures implemented to restore the credibility and integrity of these projects. Methodologically, this study adopts a qualitative, exploratory approach based on systematic document analysis and critical review of secondary data. Brazil hosts the largest number of
REDD+ projects in the world, accounting for 23% of the global total. These initiatives operate under a "results-based financing" model, where countries and companies fund forest conservation in exchange for carbon credits. The findings indicate that Brazil currently has 137 registered REDD+ projects, predominantly distributed between the Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) (116 projects) and CerCarbono (21 projects) standards. While VCS projects are mostly located on private lands, CerCarbono projects are concentrated in indigenous territories. A
common challenge is the high rate of inactive projects, reflecting structural obstacles in implementation and continuity. In response to criticisms, the sector has implemented changes, such as revising methodologies to improve the accuracy of avoided emission estimates and establishing an independent governance body to set stricter standards. In both cases, a significant number of inactive initiatives are observed, indicating operational and structural weaknesses. The conclusion is that, despite the potential of REDD+ projects for climate
mitigation, their consolidation in the voluntary market depends on regulatory, technical, and institutional advancements. These advancements must ensure not only environmental integrity but also socioeconomic equity, guaranteeing that benefits are effectively shared with local
communities.