Banca de DEFESA: FRANCISCO IVAM CASTRO DO NASCIMENTO

Socioeconomic variables, air pollution and Covid-19 in the state of Rondonia: a space-temporal

 Spatial analysis; Rondônia; Pandemic.

Recent studies suggest the existence of geostatistical relationships between COVID-19 cases and deaths with environmental and socioeconomic variables. These studies are primarily focused on North America, Europe, and Asia, with fewer investigations in South America, which motivated this research to consider the specificities of the Amazon region. This study aimed to understand the spatial relationship between COVID-19 cases and deaths and environmental and socioeconomic variables in the state of Rondonia from 2020 to 2023. The software used included ArcGIS, QGIS, GeoDa, and R. Statistical tests involved the application of the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression test, Moran's spatial autocorrelation analysis, and the implementation of DLNM (Distributed Lag Non-linear Models). The results confirm that the COVID-19 pandemic in Rondonia during 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 occurred randomly, without a specific pattern of disease distribution in the state. Geostatistical analyses using OLS indicate a positive relationship between socioeconomic variables and the COVID19 case rate. The UBS variable had the highest R², suggesting that this variable explains 19% of the COVID-19 case rate in 2020. The other variables (SL, PPOP, PPC, PAES, and PAAA) also had positive coefficients, with R² values ranging from 0.08 to 0.18. In the municipality of Porto Velho, the relative risk (RR) for COVID-19 cases is higher with greater concentrations of NO₂. For SO₂, RR is higher at low concentrations and null at high concentrations. Regarding CO, RR is negative at both low and high concentrations of this pollutant, with uncertainty for RR at higher concentrations. For SO₂, RR is statistically insignificant. The RR for COVID-19 deaths is higher with increased concentrations of NO₂ and CO. For SO₂, RR is higher at low concentrations and null at high concentrations. For O₃ emissions, RR is null across all concentration levels. In Ji-Parana, the pollutants NO₂, CO, and O₃ contribute to a higher relative risk for COVID-19 cases. Only the SO₂ variable has a positive RR at lower concentrations, with a null risk at higher concentrations of this pollutant. The RR for COVID-19 deaths is higher when NO₂, SO₂, and O₃ concentrations are elevated, with only SO₂ showing a null RR. In Vilhena, RR was positive for higher concentrations of NO₂. Regarding RR for deaths, the variables NO₂, CO, and O₃ showed higher RR values for greater emission levels. Analyses also indicate the influence of wind speed, atmospheric pressure, temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity on COVID-19 cases and deaths in Rondonia. In this context, the findings confirm the hypothesis proposed in this research, indicating that environmental and socioeconomic variables contributed to a higher number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the state of Rondonia from 2020 to 2023.