Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: MAYRA FARIA DE RODESKY

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : MAYRA FARIA DE RODESKY
DATE: 20/03/2026
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: via meet
TITLE:

Territorial, Institutional, and Regulatory Impacts of the Brazilian Emissions Trading System (SBCE) on AFOLU Projects in the Voluntary Market in the Legal Amazon: Diagnosis and Transition Scenarios

KEY WORDS:

Climate Policy; Carbon Market; AFOLU Projects; Brazilian Emissions Trading System (SBCE); Tropicalization

PAGES: 120
BIG AREA: Ciências Humanas
AREA: Geografia
SUMMARY:

carbon pricing has increasingly become a central strategy in addressing climate change and supporting countries in meeting their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. Among the available instruments, Emissions Trading Systems (ETS) stand out as regulated mechanisms that coexist with voluntary carbon markets. Brazil plays a significant role in the voluntary carbon market, particularly through AFOLU (Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses) carbon projects, which are largely concentrated in the Brazilian Legal Amazon and registered under the international Verra standard. With the enactment of Law No. 15.042/2024, which establishes the Brazilian Emissions Trading System (SBCE), a regulated carbon market is formally introduced in Brazil. Its regulatory framework has the potential to directly affect voluntary market initiatives operating within the national territory. In this context, the present study examines voluntary AFOLU carbon projects located in the Brazilian Legal Amazon and registered under the Verra VCS standard, seeking to understand how the new legal framework may reshape their territorial, regulatory, and institutional dynamics. The spatial scope encompasses AFOLU initiatives and projects registered on the Verra platform and located within municipalities of the Brazilian Legal Amazon, while the temporal scope covers the period from 2016 to 2025. The research adopts a qualitative-quantitative, descriptive and exploratory approach, based on bibliographic review, documentary research, and the analysis of a database comprising 124 carbon initiatives/projects. The findings point to three possible analytical trajectories for existing AFOLU projects in light of the new regulatory framework: (i) adaptation for potential integration into the national system (SBCE); (ii) continued operation exclusively within the voluntary market; and (iii) discontinuation of projects unable to meet emerging regulatory requirements. These trajectories are presented as plausible strategic pathways rather than quantitative forecasts. From a territorial perspective, the SBCE’s implications tend to vary according to land tenure categories, with heightened sensitivity observed in projects located in Indigenous lands, territories of traditional communities, and public lands, where legal requirements are particularly structuring. Institutionally, the findings suggest the potential reinforcement of patterns already present in the Brazilian voluntary market, characterized by concentration and asymmetries among project developers, while the regulated market may create space for new nationally structured actors. From a regulatory standpoint, the SBCE is likely to raise socioenvironmental integrity standards, potentially encouraging greater adoption of additionalbenefit certifications, as the elevation of national regulatory benchmarks influences practices within the voluntary market

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Presidente - 2666681 - MARIA MADALENA DE AGUIAR CAVALCANTE
Interno - ***.978.969-** - NILSON CESAR FRAGA - UFPR
Interna - 1057610 - LUCIANA RICA MOURAO BORGES
Externo à Instituição - ANDERSON AZEVEDO MESQUITA - UFAC
Externo à Instituição - MARCOS MASCARENHAS BARBOSA RODRIGUES - UNIFESSPA